Research News

Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Based on Multidimensional Time Series and Local Support Vector Regression for a Microgrid

Mar 18,2014

Currently power series with single time scale and large sampling intervals are generally used in modelingphotovoltaic generation forecast. Simple as the model is, its simulation accuracy of the time-series characteristics of photovoltaic (PV) power series is not high. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes a local forecasting method for multidimensional time-series based on PV power series with small sampling interval. By constructing the main value series of PV power with different time-scales, the multidimensional time-series with hourly average PV power series as the main series is obtained. The correlation analysis, C-C method and minimum prediction error method of embedding dimension are used to compute the time delay and embedding dimensions of the reconstructed phase space of the multidimensional time series. The 1-hour ahead local forecasting model for PV power is developed by using support vector regression after phase space reconstruction. To demonstrate the effectiveness, the model is applied and tested in a microgrid. Simulation results show that the proposed local forecasting model based on multidimensional time-series outperforms the local forecasting model based on one-dimensional series, hence it has a better application value.

This work is supported by Youth Science Foundation of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51206170 ) and Guangdong Provincial Bidding Projects for Guangdong and Hong Kong (No. 2011BZ100101).And this study had been accpted by Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2013, 35(5): 19-24.

For more information or full pdf file, please go to Springeralert link:http://aeps.sgepri.sgcc.com.cn/aeps/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20130710005&flag=1

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